LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF JUNE - 6/3/2017
June is both the final part of spring and the beginning of summer. Summer begins this year on Tuesday, June 20th. This is the longest day of the year by daylight in the Northern Hemisphere. At the same time, it is the shortest day of the year, the first day of winter, in the Southern Hemisphere.
June is typically a very pleasant month in our region. Average highs are in the 80s for Medford. 70s do happen frequently, and 90s are common. Hitting 100 is also seen in warm years. 60 degrees would be a very cool day. The highest June temp ever in Medford is 111 which happened in 1944. Average rainfall slides below an inch for the first time in the calendar year on average. Medford usually sees just over a half inch of rain. Most often that is the result of convective showers and thunderstorms.
So what can we expect through the middle of the month?
The latest data says that early to mid June will not be normal. Temps are expected to be near to below average. At times they could be significantly below average. This means that 60s and 70s will be showing up where 70s, 80s, and even 90s would be expected. The Coast is the one part of the region that looks to be holding closest to average without much fluctuation. Overnight lows however are not looking that far out of normal so do not see any threat for frost west of the Cascades. Before I forget to, let me say that we could see a warmer day or two where the temp approaches 90 in Medford. But, this is going to be an exception rather than the rule. East of the Cascades temps will follow a pace of what we will be seeing west of the Cascades. 50s, 60s, and 70s for the most part when it should be 60s, 70s, and 80s. If you have not figured it out yet, it is possible we will be a good 10 - 15 degrees below average through the time period.
As for rainfall......the data is showing us that we could be wetter than typical. Maybe a lot wetter. The data and models are pointing to a significant for June rain event coming for the time frame of the 8th through the 12th. It looks as if much of the regio will be seeing rain. The data and models are also showing that we could even see snow for the mountains potentially as low as 5000 feet. I do not expect this to create travel issues. But, our higher recreation areas like Crater Lake and Diamond Lake could see accumulating snow arriving. While not unheard of in this part of June, it is a rare event.