LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER - 9/9/2017
September is another bridge month. It takes us from summer to fall. It can also see the first cool temperatures arrive. Typically in September for locations west of the Cascades, temps are in the 80s and 90s at the beginning of the month, but drop to the 70s by the end of the month. East of the Cascades temps will be mainly in the 70s reaching to the 80s at the beginning of the month. But by the end, 50s and 60s are typical. The all time record high for September in Medford is 110 which happened in 1943. And even in more recent years, September has seen 100 degree days more than a few times. Average rainfall for Medford in September is just over a half an inch at .60 inches, mostly due to thunderstorm activity at the beginning of the month. In many years September can be dry. Wet storms can arrive at the end of September bringing rain and snow for the mountains. Fall arrives on the 22nd.
The Climatology Center is forecasting September to be average for both temperatures and precipitation.
So what can we expect through the end of the month?
We are expecting to see a cool down from the conditions we have been seeing. The trend for all areas except the coastal areas will be for cooling and approaching temps both in the day and at night that will be much closer to typical than what we have been seeing. So, if you look at the first paragraph, you pretty well have it figured as to what to expect for temps. As I said, the Coast looks to hover right about where they should be with 60s and 70s dominating temps. And, we can expect to see Chetco Effects for Brookings. September is a month where they usually occur.
The best news I have in this long range forecast is that precipitation is expected to be above average. With our fire situation that is welcome news. But, the expected amounts of precipitation are not going to be that heavy and there is NO sign at all yet of that first incoming fall storm bringing widespread wetting significant rains that would give us the end of fire season and bring an end to the smoke sitiuation for the season. But, still....knowing shower activity is expected to be more than an average year is good news. Hopefully the showers will hit the fires when they do occur. And combined with cooler temps, maybe the widespread heavy smoke that produces hazardous air will be ending sooner rather than later.