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FOR 8/12/2018 - 

On the whole, very little has changed from our last discussion. We are going to be seeing increasing heat. We likely are going to return to more smoke impacts leading to unhealthy air quality levels. But, we are seeing some indications that Northern California the Cascades, and east of the Cascades could see a pretty good chance for thunderstorms mid week. But first....The weekend came off as expected in terms of wind shifts and cooler temps. Happily we did get some relief from the smoke in that the persistent heavy inversion did break. This lead to us getting MUCH improved air quality west of the Cascades, especially in the later afternoons and then for the evenings. In the overnight hours, lighter smoke with less particulant count would develop. But, this was more of a haze than thick smoke. We expect that it will behave the same as we saw on Friday and Saturday. As the winds pick up the smoke will be blown out and disperse. Then the only areas that will be seeing smoke will be those directly downwind of the aires.
This is not going to hold as the pattern for much longer. We are going to see a return to the dominant ridge with resulting persisting inversions this week for the valleys of Southwestern Oregon. In Northern California, the Cascades, and east of the Cascades there will be relief from the inversions mid week, but it will come with a price. The data at the end of last week was indicating the potential for very isolated thunderstorms for Northern California and for the Cascades for Tuesday and Wednesday of the coming week. But, in looking at the data then, it looked like for them to form, there would have to next to no smoke as there was not enough lifting without surface heating. The data now is supporting more instability coming in. Enough so that isolated storms could form smoke or no smoke. Northern California still looks to have the greatest chance to see storms both Tuesday and Wednesday. They will be most likely over the Marbles and Trinities and then northeastward over the Cascades and into southern portions of Lake County. On Wednesday the potential area for storms will expand to include the Cascades. For Thursday the threat will be mostly over the Cascades and for Northern Klamath and Lake Counties. The storms forming and the movement in the atmosphere will break the inversions up for Northern California and for areas east of the Cascades in Oregon. It is not expected that the chance for storms will develop in Jackson or Josephine Counties at this time. But, should the flow turn a bit and become directly southerly, then things could change.
Regardless of what happens where for Tuesday Wednesday, and Thursday, the threat for storms will end for our area on Thursday night. From Friday out through the weekend we are going to be dry and hot. Triple digit temps are expected to return for westside valleys and 90s east of the Cascades. Fire activity is expected to continue to be active with heavy smoke production also expected to occur. And, with persistent inversions in place, expect air quality to be back into unhealthy levels by the end of the coming week. If that is, we have not already reached that point earlier. The coast and from Douglas County north will be the places to head to escape the smoke over the next week. The coast in the Brookings and Crescent City areas has seen smoke today. But, the winds will shift back to on shore and that will push the smoke out of there. Expected winds will also keep the smoke mostly confined to Jackson, Josephine, and Klamath Counties in Southern Oregon. Siskiyou and Modoc Counties can expect to continue to see smoke impacts as well. How thick that smoke is will depend on how airflow sets up. But again, Siskiyou and Modoc Counties are most likely to see smoke relief for Tuesday and Wednesday due to expected thunderstorms developing and breaking inversions up. 


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