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Weather Summary - 7/21

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We did get warming today of the level we expected. 92 was the high in medford. That by the way is right on average for the date. We will see temps bump up by around 6 - 8 degrees tomorrow, and then hold there for Sunday. Saturday will be very sunny and hot across the area including the Coastal areas between Smith River and Gold Beach as we see a Chetco Effect get going over there. Highs in the 80s are likely for Brookings and Harbor. Saturday night looks to be clear across the area with some fog possible at the Coast. Sunday though will see action in the sky in the form of thunderstorms. There is a cutoff low that will take up position on Sunday off Northern California. It will be located favorably to inject moisture and instability in. Combine that with heat and we have a can't miss scenario for storms. But where will they form? The thought right now will be mostly over Northern California earlier in the afternoon and then working north up the Cascades and east of the Casacdes by late afternoon early evening. We will need to keep an eye on those early firing storms as they could be dry or produce very little wetting rainfall. Just what our dried out wildlands do not need. Sunday evening the threat expands to include the Siskiyous and the valleys of Jackson, and Josephine Counties. Southern and Eastern Douglas County could see a storm too. But, it does not look like Roseburg will.

Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage on Monday as the low moves inland to further destabalize the atmosphere with storms possible across the entire area except the Coastal areas and inland Coos County and Western Douglas County including Roseburg. There could be showers for those areas, but thunder does not look likely. Storms on Monday look as though they will be able to put down heavy bursts of rain. But, lightning strikes on the edges of the storms outside the rain cores will have the same effect as dry strikes. It looks like another busy day for fire fighters. Monday night could see overnight isolated storms happen. The best chance for them would be over the Cascades as things stand right now. But, cannot rule them out elsewhere. The low moves east Tuesday and that will limit thunderstorms to the Cascades and east of them for Tuesday. The storms will come to an end for those areas east of the Cascades by Midnight as the low continues east and moves out of our area.

Behind that what happens is a return to sunny skies and seasonal temps across the area. In fact, the weather is shaping up very nicely at this point for the Country Crossings Music Festival at the Expo next weekend. I am sure the artists and attendees are really going to appreciate what we will see for temps, instead of seeing 100 plus degree heat like we could easily see at this time of the year. There could be a thunderstorm threat again for that weekend. But, right now it looks like the eastern slopes of the Cascades woul;d be the furthest west they would be. Most of that activity looks like it will be east of the Cascades and centered over Lake and Modoc Counties with just widely scattered to isolate storms at best for Klamath and Eastern Siskiyou Counties. 



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