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Weather Summary - 11/20

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Satellite and radar observations show a very rich moisture plume aimed at the Southern Oregon and Northern California coast. 2 to 3 inches have already fallen along the Curry County coast with Red Mound reporting 4.71 inches as of 3 this afternoon since around 5 pm PST Sunday. An inch to an inch and a half with local reports of up to 2 inches has fallen throughout Josephine County. The majority of the area west of the Cascades is generally reporting around a half an inch to an inch with less than half an inch falling east of the Cascades. Another 2 to 3 inches is expected along the Curry Coastal Mountains...half an inch to an inch expected elsewhere west of the Cascades...and another quarter of an inch east of the Cascades through early Tuesday morning. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the Chetco Bar wildfire burn scar. Precipitation rates should diminish after 10 pm tonight. Wind advisories continue for the Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades around Summer Lake and the higher terrain of Lake and Modoc counties. Winds are still gusting to 50 mph east of the Cascades and up to 40 mph in the Shasta Valley so the advisories will continue through late tonight. Winds will continue to be gusty in the Shasta Valley so the wind advisory has been extended through late Tuesday night. East of the Cascades, in the Summer Lake area, there will be enough of a break in the wind, so the advisory there will go through tonight and then pick back up late Tuesday morning. The wind advisory for east of the Cascades will run from 10 am tomorrow morning through 10 pm tomorrow night.
By Tuesday, the ridge centered just to the east amplifies and the focus of the moisture will be north of the area. Rain will taper off by the afternoon for most of the area. The exception will be along the coast where southwest flow will keep the moisture flowing into the Coastal Mountains. Upslope flow will maintain rain for these areas through Wednesday evening while the rest of the area should remain mostly dry. A few short waves embedded in the southwest flow may enhance precipitation further inland at times through Wednesday night. As for snow levels, the amplifying ridge will push them up to around 10,000 feet, keeping them high through Thanksgiving morning. Thanksgiving Day will start off dry for much of the area away from the coast, with a front gradually moving inland as the day progresses. This front isn`t a strong one so rain amounts will be relatively light and snow levels will only lower to around 6,000 to 7,000 feet by early Friday morning. So we still aren`t looking at any major snow impacts through the short term.
Friday, as a ridge builds over the region, a short period of drier weather with only light isolated to scattered showers is possible. Also areas of morning valley fog are likely on Friday. Models continue to show a warm front moving up from the southwest and into the area Friday night into Saturday morning, followed by a potentially strong cold front moving into the coast late Saturday. Rain and elevated snow levels of 8000 feet or higher are expected with the warm front. Then as the cold front moves towards the coast, expect additional light to moderate rain to move into the area. Models continue to show differences in the strength of this system. However they are trending closer showing a low moving along the Oregon coast. Depending on the strength and track of the low as it moves up from the southwest, strong south winds are possible ahead of this front Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The potential for strong winds greatest in the Shasta Valley, Summer Lake area and over the higher mountains. The shortwave low is forecast to track north Saturday night with a cold front remaining along the coast. This front will gradually move inland Sunday.
Another strong and moist front is possible Sunday night into Monday. The front on Monday will also bring the potential for strong winds over the area, especially in the Shasta Valley and from the Cascades east. Models indicate this front will move inland Monday with falling snow levels and continued showers. Snow levels are forecast to lower down to around 4000 feet by Monday evening as the front moves east and an upper trough moves across the area. The lower snow levels with showers may result in light to moderate snow over the higher terrain above 4000 feet.


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