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Weather Summary - 9/22

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Low clouds are found in the Umpqua Basin and down into the Illinois Valley this morning. Patchy fog and some low clouds have also been seen in Jackson County. These clouds should break up by late mornig with clear skies over all the area for today. There was patchy frost in the Rogue Valley, and the Applegate Valley did see temperatures close to or at freezing this morning. Guidance for the Applegate Valley did not do very well and we will have to evaluate if similar temperatures will occur again tonight. If so, a frost advisory may be posted for the outlying areas west of the Cascades to include the Applegate Valley and likely the Illinois Valley as well.

North winds will be breezy at the coast and east of the Cascades this afternoon as the air mass gradually becomes warmer and drier. The broad slow-moving upper trough remains centered near the southeast corner of Oregon with an equally broad ridge offshore extending into the Gulf of Alaska. There will remain a slight chance of light showers over the higher terrain from the Cascades eastward this afternoon. High temperatures today will be several degrees warmer than yesterday with the aid of reduced cloud cover...but that will still be around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The warming and drying will be more noticeable on the weekend through early next week. This includes high temperatures into the 70s at Brookings with a relatively modest but long-lived easterly wind episode. With this pattern, patchy night and morning stratus and fog is possible from Cape Blanco northward with mostly clear skies along the south coast. Inland, skies will be partly cloudy at times with a few very weak impulses in the northerly flow aloft. High clouds will be on a noticeable increase Sunday into Monday as a trough moves over the top of the ridge into Canada and Washington. Low temperatures in valleys east of the Cascades tonight are expected to be below freezing again and will be only a few degrees higher on Saturday night before returning to near normal for Sunday night.
We will be seeing warming next week with temps getting back up to where the word hot will be entering the forecasts again.BUT! Hot is relative to what an aaverage temp would be. And right now average highs are dropping back to the the 70s and around 80 for the inland areas west of the Cascades. So highs in the upper 80s to near 90 like we expect to see next week will be considered hot. There is a moderate amount of uncertainty regarding the strength of northeast winds and the extent of warming. The forecast reflects a blend of the more consistent model solutions right now. We have one model that is more consistent from its previous runs and maintains a strong ridge over the west coast with an omega blocking pattern. That would give us even hotter temps than currently forecast if it turns out to be correct. Another model has a retrograde trough moving southwest from the Rockies to Southern Nevada and Southern California. This is plausible and would set up a rex block. That too would give us hot temps if it does develop that way. A blended solution with less retrogression would be most likely. In either case, a very warm and stable air mass is expected. Model differences are more significant on day 7/Friday. We have one that is stronger/colder and more progressive with a trough from the west that would break up the blocking pattern and bring westerly winds to our area. This model did very accurately predict the on set of the rains and snows this last week. It id not have amounts correct, especially for the west side valleys. But, if what matters is seeing when we are likely to flip conditions...this model has been performing well all spring and summer. I am going to count on it to be right again here. This model does indicate that the bulk of the rian and mountain snow comming with this trough will stay well to the north of our area. Just light to very light amounts of precipitation for us.. Meantime, another model and data suite has a drier solution with just a modest flattening of the ridge that will be building next week. This would give us some partly cloudy skies and temps would drop by around 10 degrees from where they will be by next Thursday..
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