WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
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For 7/13/2020 - from Medford NWS
Typical summer weather is expected for much of this week and into next weekend. High pressure aloft over the Eastern Pacific will strengthen this week and the Four Corners High will shift eastward. This will leave the area under a stable west to northwest flow that will continue into the weekend, resulting in benign weather for the week. A thermal trough along the coast will be our daily weather driver for much of the week. This will bring a period of offshore (east to northeasterly) flow with gusty north winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. Temperatures will increase, but remain seasonable around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. For this time of year, that equates to mid 90s for West Side valleys, mid to upper 80s east of the Cascades and mid to upper 90s for Northern California. Also, expect the Chetco Effect to develop with low 80s expected for the Brookings area Tuesday into Wednesday. The warmest temperatures are expected Wednesday when the thermal trough moves inland, and afternoon highs reach into the upper 90s for West Side valleys.
Easterly flow under the thermal trough pattern will limit the extent of the marine layer over the next few days. Unlike recent mornings last week, skies are clear for much of the forecast area this morning. There`s bit of stratus along the coast in the Brookings area and in the Coquille Basin. There may be some clouds that fill in the southern portion of the Umpqua and Coquille Basins over the next few hours, but that should be the extent of the marine influence this morning. Over the next few mornings, expect even less in terms of coverage, as northeasterly winds trend higher tonight into Wednesday. The thermal trough pattern will be disrupted Thursday as a shortwave moves through in the northwest flow aloft. This will likely be the warmest day for the East Side while the West Side will see a few degrees of cooling. Models continue to hint at weak low pressure off the California Coast. However, it`s not the ideal set up for thunderstorm development in our area. We`ll remain more under the influence of broad troughing to the north and most of the instability and moisture will be focused along the Sierras to the south of the forecast area. However, a slight chance (10-15%) for thunderstorms for the far southeastern portion of Modoc County has been included in the forecasts. It`s not out of the realm of possibility that something moves north from the Sierras into the area, so have left that in the forecast at this time. Beyond Thursday, the thermal trough returns Friday into Saturday but will be weaker. Temperatures away from the coast will rebound, but won`t be quite as warm as what we`re expecting Wednesday. Thunderstorm parameters are weak for the rest of the weekend, so the forecast remains dry over the weekend. However, we`ll continue to monitor model trends and update as necessary.
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