WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
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For 6/20/2022 - from Medford NWS
*Temperatures will warm through mid-week, and some areas may see 90 degrees by midweek. Most likely to happen in southwestern Siskiyou County.
*Gale force winds and very steep seas are expected in the coastal waters.
*Temperatures continue to climb with up to a 40 percent chance of seeing 100 degrees west of the Cascades, and a 60 percent chance of 90 degrees or more east of the Cascades this weekend, Most likely for southern Klamath County and Modoc County.
*The possibility of thunderstorms enters the forecast beginning Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Most likely east of the Cascades.
A long wave upper ridge is now building into the area from the west. Meanwhile, a weak short wave moving through the ridge will dig into California and form a cutoff low over central California Tuesday. This will initiate several days of dry weather over the area with a warming trend. East to northeast flow aloft around the cutoff low will support a Chetco effect event that will begin today, bringing high temperatures in the lower 80s to the Brookings area. Over the rest of the area, inland high temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degrees below normal over most of the area, and to near normal values over Siskiyou County.
A strong thermal trough is developing near the coast, and this will bring strong north winds to the coast and coastal waters. It is also going to be the root cause of the Chetco Effect in Curry and Del Norte Counties with the circulation around it.
Tuesday will be dry and warmer, with high temperatures warming to around 5 degrees above normal over most of the area. The exceptions will be over most of the coast and the Umpqua Basin, where highs will be near normal, Siskiyou county, where highs will be around 10 degrees above normal, and the Brookings area, which will see highs around 20 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, the thermal trough will keep on doing its thing, with continuing strong north winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. It will peak in strength Tuesday into Wednesday.
The cutoff low will continue to drift south, and flow aloft will become southwest to west Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will end the easterly flow event, and the coast around Brookings will cool as the thermal trough moves inland and marine air returns to the area. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week over all of the area except for around Brookings, where the highs will cool down to around 10 degrees above normal. The rest of the coast will see highs around 5 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, inland high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal over most of the area, and 10 to 15 degrees above normal over Siskiyou county.
Medford may see the first 90 degree reading of the calendar year. If that comes to pass, it will be tied for the 7th latest occurrence of that threshold in the 111 year climate record for Medford.
Extended discussion for. Thu 23 Jun through Sunday 26 Jun 2022.
By the weekend, expect some southerly to southwesterly flow to continue warming up the area. Roseburg will finally reach a 60 percent chance of reaching 90 degrees with the Rogue and Siskiyou County Valleys seeing a 40 percent chance of reaching 100 degrees or more. East of the Cascades, chances of seeing 90 degrees will also increase to around 60 percent. This means that we could be in for a hot start to Summer which begins on Tuesday. Additionally, expect summertime humidities to begin this week as well with some moderate to moderately poor recoveries over ridges and upper slopes this week with the continued east winds.
Additionally Thursday into this weekend, the cutoff low may move northward and combine with some monsoonal moisture from the Desert Southwest. This would bring chances for some thunderstorms in the area. An isolated thunderstorm is possible Thursday, but the first decent chances, albeit low (15% or so) will occur on Friday, and largely for Modoc and southeastern Lake County. The models are suggesting a better chance (15 percent or so) on Sunday with the monsoonal moisture. Still the National Blend of Models has not bought into this yet, so precipitation chances remain relatively minimal. This part of the forecast should be monitored in the upcoming days for additional details and increasing confidence in the forecast.
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