WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
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For 6/14/2021 - from Medford NWS
Yesterday`s rainfall at the coast was impressive, good enough for a second consecutive daily precipitation record at North Bend with 1.29 inches. This easily surpassed the previous record of 0.67 inches set in 1992. What`s even more impressive are some of the multi-day totals measured at the south coast near Brookings, where reports of 3 to 6 inches were common since Friday. Our resident precipitation magnet known as Red Mound RAWS, measured more than 11 inches of rain during the multi-day precip event. A special combination of elevation, orographics and proximity to the ocean make this location the wettest spot in the SW Oregon Coast Range, where over 10 feet (yes, feet) of rain, occurs, on average, every year. All this rain was welcome given the last 60+ days of seemingly unrelenting dryness in these parts. To illustrate the diversity of climate regions across our forecast area alone, I won`t fail to mention that across the far east side yesterday (at the same time it was raining buckets at the coast), SSW winds gusted 30-40 mph with afternoon relative humidity falling to the teens! Yearly rainfall, by the way, over there is, in some cases, less than 10 inches.
Well, today, the atmospheric river responsible for a record daily PWAT measured on KMFR`s sounding yesterday afternoon of 1.25 inches is beginning to move inland and weaken. It`s still quite moist west of the Cascades with satellite blended TPW still showing up around an inch, but it`ll gradually dissipate over the next 24 hours as the persistent upper trough over the NE Pacific begins to lose its grip and ejects ENEward into western Canada. Radar is still showing some healthy showers where the moisture is and most of these have been wetting areas from Grants Pass to Roseburg during the past few hours. Expect them to migrate eastward during the early morning hours with the most activity stretching from western/central Siskiyou County northward across Jackson and into eastern Douglas County during the morning hours. Shower chances continue this afternoon into this evening, but, in contrast to yesterday, mostly for areas inland from the coast. With weak instability, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms near the Cascades and across northern Klamath County. Far east side areas will remain dry and breezy to windy at times with wind gusts once again in the 30-40 mph range.
Shower chances diminish to almost nil overnight, but still with a slight chance across our northern zones. Once last short wave disturbance will move across the area Tuesday morning, then lift NNE of the area Tuesday afternoon. Showers are likely along the coast in the morning and are possible just about anywhere north of the Umpqua Divide and into northern Klamath/Lake counties Tuesday afternoon. It`ll remain breezy across the east side during the afternoon with winds shifting from SW to NW during the late afternoon/evening. For most areas south of the Umpqua Divide, the air mass will dry out considerably. For the rest of the week and into next weekend, we expect an abrupt change toward much warmer, dry weather as the upper ridge near the Four Corners expands westward. Upper heights will rise, with a mostly zonal jet remaining to our north through Friday. We are expecting temperatures to surge back above normal levels and, in most areas, 10-15 degrees above normal. Right now, this heat isn`t too atypical for this time of year, so we`re not anticipating any heat risk hazards just yet. Expect more typical diurnal breezes to develop in the afternoons/evenings with thermal troughing expected to develop in northern California.
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