WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
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FROM MEDFORD NWS 10/11/2024 -
A broad upper level ridge remains over the region today bringing warm and dry weather to the area. Meanwhile a low pressure system to the west will approach the area today and tonight. Satellite imagery currently shows this low 700 miles off the southern Oregon coast near 41N 136W. As this low tracks eastward today, high clouds will spread over the area. Models continue to support the low tracking inland along the Oregon/California border Saturday morning and afternoon.
Although there remains significant variability, models and ensembles have trended slightly higher for chances of light rain across the area. The best chances (40-60%) for light to locally moderate rain are still expected along the coast (especially Cape Blanco southward), inland across Curry County, southern Josephine, and western Siskiyou counties. Elsewhere, inland expect lower chances for rainfall (15-30%) on Saturday. Cooler temperatures are also in store on Saturday with high temperatures trending closer to seasonal norms with highs in the 60s to 70s across most inland valleys. This system will shift east of the area Saturday night with dry weather returning to inland areas and a chance for light rain or drizzle along the coast.
Sunday into Monday, expect the area to be under southwest flow with an upper level ridge centered to the east. This will bring a return of warm daytime temperatures to the area. There is a potential for cool overnight/morning lows temperature for valleys east of the Cascades Sunday and Monday.
Then, a significant shift in the pattern is expected beginning Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough drops down out of the Gulf of Alaska and deepens as a low pressure system move around the base of the trough. This front is forecast to move into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are indicating a potential for widespread precipitation, cooler temperatures and breezy to gusty winds (strongest east of the Cascades) as this system moves through. However, there remains variability in the strength of this system and how much precipitation may be associated with it as it moves inland. Then, as the upper trough settles over the area late Wednesday to Wednesday night, models indicate additional showers and lowering snow levels potentially bringing light snow to higher portions of the Southern Oregon Cascades (generally
above 5000 feet). Shower activity may linger into Thursday as the upper trough remains over the region and additional disturbances rotate into the area.
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