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For 10/19/2021 - from Rogueweather 

The set up we are looking at for the next 10 days looks far more dead of winter like than early fall. But, considering the drought situation, this is an incredibly awesome thing to see happening at this time of the year. We are going to see a pattern set up that will bring copious moisture across the region. Every part of the West Coast from Northern California up to Canada is going to see very above average rainfall coming. I mean even parts of the region like the Olympic Peninsula in Washington, and then the Coast Range in Oregon down through Northern California are going to see heavy rains. Heavy even for places where it can really pour. What will happen is that the jet stream is going to deliver a series of systems that have the tropics as their source. These systems will continue to see more moisture pumped into them. They will be Atmospheric River events that have a series of lows in them. This is a series of what we used to call Pineapple Expresses. Good thing there is not heavy snow pack in the mountains. Because had there been, we would almost certainly be looking at the possibility of major flooding breaking out.
The fact that we are so dry and there is so little water in the soils or flows in the rivers is going to be our saving grace. And, the truly great news here is that lakes that are pretty much as dry as they have been in a very long time are perfectly positioned to be able to take in a lot of the flows that will come pouring in to them. We just could not have had better fortune here for the kind of rains we will be seeing to come in and not be a major risk for flooding. Flooding may occur in the burn scar areas from the fires over the last three years. The fire areas from last fall and this year are going to be something to really keep an eye on. Flash floods, mud flows, debris flows, and even rock slides are all potential hazards from the rains coming. If you are near any of the most recent burn areas, or will be traveling through these areas.....this is a threat you will need to be mindful of. Should water, mud, or debris start going across the roadway you are NOT attempt to cross it. Go back the way you came.
As these will be warm systems coming in until early next week, snow levels are going to be very high. They are likely going to be lower at Mt. Shasta. But, for the most part, they will be over 7000 to 8000 feet. Next week they will be coming down. But, by the time they do that, we are not expecting the same amount of moisture to be coming in. And, even when they do drop, the snow impact would be most likely in the passes of the Cascades. I 5 north and south out of Southern Oregon and Northern California is not looking too likely for a snow impact. It it did happen, it would be most likely localized to the Mt. Shasta area, or possibly Siskiyou Summit. But, that is next week and still a long way out. .
Beyond next week, every bit of long to very long range data I have seen continues to keep us with above average likelihood of preceptitation coming into the Northwest and also the tri counties of Northern California. Del Norte, Siskiyou, and Modoc Counties. That should be expected to be the case through the middle of November. Temperatures look as though they will be below average from now to the end of October. In early to mid November temps look as though they should be seasonal for our area. If that is true, looks like our skl areas, (Mt. Ashland and Mt. Shasta Ski Park), are going to be seeing their snowpacks getting a good early start on building for the coming season. 


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