WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
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FOR 1/19/2019 - from Medford NWS and Rogueweather
Widespread rain continues across the Medford CWA with snow levels now up around around 8000 feet. The Red Mound RAWS is the current rainfall leader, with 5.24 inches of rain in 24 hours.
There looks to be little change through tonight. A stalled front draped across the area is nearly parallel to the upper level flow. It will wobble back and forth a bit as weak waves move northeast along the frontal boundary. Winds and rainfall will be enhanced as the waves go through. The rainfall combined with high snow levels have creating flooding concerns, mostly along the coast, Coast Range, and western Siskiyou county. In particular, the Coquille River may flood sometime in the next few days. A Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas. There had been a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday. However, due to diminished instability have removed that potential from the forecasts.
Winds are relatively light at this time, but they will be enhanced as frontal waves move through.
The long wave trough driving the frontal activity will approach the coast Sunday and move onshore Sunday night. This will force the front to begin progressing again, and it will move out to the east of the area Sunday. However, the wraparound will move in Sunday with the surface low, and this will keep the precipitation going during the day Sunday into Sunday night. The inland progression of the front will also enhance winds over the east side and in the Shasta Valley, and a Wind Advisory is in effect there late tonight into Sunday morning.
Snow will become a concern behind the front, as snow levels will fall to around 4000 feet. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow has been issued for the Cascades and Siskiyous for Sunday into Sunday night. Amounts will be 4 to 6 inches over most areas, but the Cascade crest and higher elevations in the Siskiyous may see 12 inches.
The precipitation will diminish Sunday night as the upper trough departs the area and a strong ridge builds in from the west. Precipitation will end Monday morning. A warm front will brush the northern portions of the area Monday night into Tuesday. The models show light precipitation over the Oregon west side at that time. With low level easterly flow in place, any measurable rainfall will be quite light.
Wednesday through next Sunday the forecasting models are in very good agreement. Wednesday begins with a weak front washing out over the region as an upper ridge begins to build over the region. The upper ridge stays over the region into the end of the week, with a stagnant air mass likely over the area. The GFS forecasting model is indicating a brief break in the upper ridge pattern before transitioning to a weak upper trough moving through the ridge Saturday, then returning to an upper ridge pattern. However, this seems unlikely and am going with the ECMWF`s forecasting models continued upper ridge pattern into the following week. With this in mind it is likely that we will see daily fog and a stagnant air mass pattern from Thursday into at least Monday of the following week.
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