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Today's forecast 7/22/2014 - brought to you by Valley Immediate Care 

Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the entire area. Some storms may become severe with winds gusting over 50 miles an hour and large hail. Storms may also produce heavy rain. Highs today will be in the upper 80s for the valleys, and in the 70s and 80s for the mountains and east of the Cascades. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s for the valleys, and in the 50s for the mountains and east of the Cascades.


RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM TONIGHT FOR SISKIYOU, AND MODOC COUNTIES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST JOSEPHINE COUNTY, EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, AND FOR ALL OF JACKSON,  KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

The National Weather Service Office in Medford has issued a fire weather watch for the advisory area due to the expected development of thunderstorms with frequent lightning striking critically dry fuels. While the storms are expected to be rain producers, early on they could be high based dry cells. As the storms become wetter, lightning hitting on the edges of the storms could pose a risky for fire starts if the rain cores of the storms misses the area where the lightning strike occurred. Lightning activity is expected to be frequent with the storms that do form.


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Need the forecast for the next week? Get it here on the Line X of Southern Oregon Weekly forecast page!


There was a fire in the field that the airport owns off Corona Avenue in North Medford recently. See what is happening to prevent that from happening again, and to help people who suffered losses in the fire. Scroll down below for the story.


WEATHER SUMMARY DISCUSSION:

The data this morning is showing a VERY dynamic picture as three different circulations in the atmosphere will affect us, and all three will work in concert to focus a lot of energy overhead today. The first player in the situation is a low off the Coast of British Columbia. This low is going to help push the jet stream south so that it is coming right over us. This low is also sending in cooler air aloft into the mix which will help both destabilize us and to give the potential for hail development in the stronger cells as they reach the cold air pool. The second player is a circulation that is headed south well off shore of California. This p[layer is going to act as a kicker to drive the third player to the north and be the big trigger today.

And now that third player. This is a very well defined low working it's way up the California Coast a this time. It is pushing in monsoonal moisture with it. It has already produced thunderstorms this morning in the Bay Area and it will arrive late this morning into the early afternoon here. When it does, you will know it. Thunderstorms will have explosive development as the clash of the air masses supported by favorable jet stream energy looks to happen right over us today. Storms will be most numerous where they always are, Northern California, the mountains, and east of the Cascades. But, from the I 5 corridor and to the east it looks like there will be plenty of activity too. That means here in Jackson County we are likely to see some storms pop. Douglas County is also likely to see storms. Josephine County will not be as likely, but cannot rule them out. There is a chance. Basically the current Red Flag Warning has the best potential areas nailed down. The triggering low coming north will encounter the low off the Coast of British Columbia and turn northeast and move out of the area tonight. With all that energy being focused, the potential for severe weather does exist. The most likely severe weather will be damaging wind gusts to over 50 miles an hour and large hail potentially to golf ball size in the most severe storms. All storms today will be capable of dropping heavy rain with them, and there will be frequent cloud to ground lightning as well. If a storm is approaching today, you will want to take shelter from it. These will be nasty storms. 

When the triggering low moves out, the big low off British Columbia will move in. It is going to drop south and come through the Northwest. Because of that, forecasts for Wednesday and Thursday will be very different. We are going to keep a chance for showers going now over our area. Not a thunderstorm threat as much. A few storms may get going over east of the Cascades, and well to the east at that. Mainly Lake County. But for the rest of us just plain old showers. We are also going to see some pretty cool temps as highs may not get out of the low 80s for the valleys. Wednesday night it is looking like the areas east of the Cascades will see high 30s for lows. Not seeing a frost threat so no issue there. Man, did I just say FROST THREAT? Yes I did. Let that sink in. The big low will move off to the east on Thursday and the sun returns in full force. Temps will still be below normal, but warming to the upper 80s. Our next ridge builds in quickly on Thursday night into Friday morning being driven by the low headed east. That will take us back to sunny and hot weather by Friday. Triple digits arrive for Saturday and then we have triple digits forecast through Monday. 



FIRE INFORMATION BROUGHT TO YOU BY:


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DUE TO THE SHEER NUMBER OF FIRES BURNING RIGHT NOW, ALL FIRES WILL BE COVERED WITH QUICK SYNOPSIS


OREGON - 

BUZZARD COMPLEX: Harney County near Crane. Lightning caused. Interagency command of the complex. East Division commanded by a national Type I IMT. West Division commanded by an Oregon interagency Type II IMT. The complex has burned 395,747 acres in total. The complex consists of 6 major fires. The Buzzard Fire, the Beaver Creek Fire, the Twin Reservoir Fire, the Saddle Draw Fire, the Lamb Ranch Fire, and the Bartlett Fire. Percent of containment for the complex is 85 percent. Most of the fires are burning in grass, sage, and juniper flats. Minimal fire behavior with creeping and isolated single tree torching. Favorable weather conditions continued, and then they did get rain over the complex yesterday and last night. That was just what they needed. Because of the size of the complex and with over 380 miles of fireline to maintain, they split the complex into two divisions. An East and a West. This was done for fire fighter safety first and foremost. The East Division is based at the school in Juntura, and the West Division is based at the school in Crane. Due to the situation being well hand with little growth expected if any, they began releasing resources yesterday to get them were they were needed more. 474 people were released from the complex for other assignments. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, and helicopters fighting the fire. Total personnel - 960

BAILEY BUTTE FIRE: Former Waterman Complex. Grant County, near Mitchell. Lightning caused. ODF has command of the fire. Type II IMT. 12,520 acres, 75 percent contained. The complex has become just one active fire now, the Bailey Butte Fire. All other fires in the complex have been contained. The Bailey Butte Fire had moderate fire behavior yesterday with torching. Fire is burning in a mix of timber and grasslands. Structures are threatened. Road closures in the fire area. Highway 26 reopened this morning with control of traffic flow in place. This is a critical highway for travel of goods from Central Oregon to the John Day area. An entire division of fire fighters along with tree fallers, engines, and air support have been dedicated to Highway 26 and keeping it open. Fire fighters had a great day yesterday and made solid progress. That is evident in the huge jump on containment percentage this morning. Went from 35 percent yesterday to 75 percent this morning. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, helicopters, and air tankers fighting the fire. Total personnel - 903

PINE CREEK COMPLEX: Wheeler County, near Fossil. Lightning caused. BLM has command of the fire. A national Type II IMT utilized. 102,001 acres, 52 percent contained. This complex of fires consists of the Pine Creek Fire, Jack Knife Fire, Black Rock Fire, and the Donnybrook Fire. Minimal fire behavior yesterday over most of the complex. The exception was at the Black Rock Fire which did see some surface runs and torching. The fire is burning in grasslands and timber. Structures are threatened with level II evacuations in effect on the Pine Creek Fire. The Jack Knife Fire in the complex is fully contained and is being monitored from the air. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, helicopters, and air tankers fighting the fires in the complex. Fire crews from the Rogue Valley have been assigned to this complex. Total personnel - 932

BRIDGE 99 COMPLEX: Deschutes County, near Camp Sherman. Lightning caused. Oregon interagency team has command with Applegate Fire District Chief Brett Fillis as IC. 5848 acres in size, 25 percent containment. This is a complex of the southern half of the Bear Butte 2 fire, and the entirety of the Bridge 99 Fire. The complex had moderate behavior yesterday with torching. The fire is burning in timber. Numerous structures are threatened and evacuations and road closures are in place on the Bridge 99 Fire. Critical endangered fish habitat is also at high risk. Better weather conditions aided fire fighters greatly. A burnout operation was staged to great success on the north side of the Bridge 99 fire. This was done to cut off the expected direction of spread over the next 24 - 48 hours. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, helicopters, and air tankers fighting the fires in the complex. Total personnel - 765

BIGHAM COMPLEX: Willamette National Forest east of Eugene and Salem in the high Cascades. Lightning caused. US Forest Service has command of the fire. Type II IMT.  452 acres total. The complex saw minimal behavior yesterday with creeping and isolated single tree torching. Complex is burning in timber, including old growth stands. Complex is also burning in rugged wilderness. The remoteness of some parts of the fire will slow containment efforts. The bulk of the effort is being concentrated on the Bingham Ridge Fire in the complex. The Lizard Fire is well within the Mt. Jefferson Wilderness and they are adopting a let it burn strategy as the fire has become very low intensity and is on the forest floor. In short, at this point it is a very beneficial fire and will be managed to accomplish positive objectives. Hot Shot and Helitack crews were released form the complex yesterday to go assist with other fires in the region, and to be ready for initial attack against new fires that may pop up as the result of lightning. That may have included the Siskiyou Rappellers coming back home to Merlin to stand by here for deployment. The fire camp for the complex is at the Hoodoo Ski Area. Mix of resources includes hand crews, one engine, one bulldozer, and helicopters. Total personnel - 367

SHANIKO BUTTE FIRE: Warm Springs Reservation in Central Oregon. Lightning caused. The Bureau of Indian Affairs has command of the fire. A type II IMT is being utilized. 42,000 acres, 75 percent contained. Minimal fire behavior yesterday. Fire is burning in grass, sage, and juniper. Numerous structures and cultural sites are threatened. Evacuations and road closures have been put in effect. The fire is burning in rugged terrain in rough canyonlands making containment efforts difficult. Fire fighters had very favorable conditions Burnouts were conducted which helped create buffers around threatened structures and roadways. The burnouts were successful in achieving objectives. The Deschutes River is open again in the fire area. Be aware of fire fighting activities like helicopters filling out of the river. Estimated full containment date is the 26th. Personnel were released from the fire yesterday to go assist with other fires in the region. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, and helicopters fighting the fire. Total personnel - 506

SUNFLOWER FIRE: Umatilla National Forest nearest to Monument. The Forest Service has command of this fire. A type II IMT is being utilized. 6736 acres in size, 50 percent contained. Structures are threatened. Moderate fire behavior yesterday with torching. Fire is burning in timber. Evacuations are in effect for this fire. Crews made good progress on the fire yesterday as conditions moderated. In direct line, and a successful burnout did help stabilize an area of the fire in some rough terrain. Hot Shot crews arrived from other incidents in Oregon to attack the fire in the more challenging terrain. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, helicopters, and air tankers fighting the fire. Total personnel - 662.

LOGGING UNIT COMPLEX: Warm Springs Reservation in Central Oregon. Lightning caused. The complex is under command of an Interagency Type I IMT. 10,302 acres, 5 percent contained. The complex is burning in timber. Moderate fire behavior seen yesterday across the complex with torching and short range spotting. The Bear Butte 2 Fire is the largest fire in the complex, but it is the Camas Prairie Fire that has been showing the most activity. Additional resources have been arriving which is going to help the situation here greatly. Weather forecasts over the next 48 hours are very favorable with increased humidity, lower temps, and the possibility of precipitation. They undertook an aggressive aerial attack of the Camas Prairie Fire yesterday. Air tankers dropped retardant, and helicopters pounded it with water. Air National Guard Blackhawk and Chinook helicopters arrived to assist. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, helicopters, and air tankers fighting the fire. Total personnel - 735

OCHOCO COMPLEX: Crook County, near Post. Lightning caused. A national type II IMT has command of the complex. 6333 acres, 22 percent containment for the complex. Moderate fire behavior was seen with torching and spotting on the Fox Fire. There are 4 fires in the complex. The previously reported Oscar Canyon Fire in the complex merged with the Fox Fire which is the biggest fire in the complex at over 6000 acres. The Fox Fire is the most active fire and the one with the least amount of containment. There was a huge increase in acreage. Not sure what happened. Better mapping maybe, but the Fox Fire nearly tripled in size and there is no clear account as to why. Fire behavior does not match the increase in acreage. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, helicopters, and air tankers fighting the fires of the complex. Total personnel - 285

CENTER FIRE: Previously reported as the O297 PR Fire. Crook County, near Post. Lightning caused. BLM has command of the fire. 2800 acres, 29 percent contained. Fire is burning in grass, brush and scattered stands of timber. Minimal fire behavior yesterday with creeping and smoldering. Resource mix of hand crews, and engines fighting the fire. Total personnel - 34.

WARD CANYON FIRE: Sherman County, near Antelope. Lightning caused. Local fire chief in command of the fire. 15,000 acres, no containment given. Fire is burning in grasslands with brush and junipers. This fire has been burning for over a week now. No new information received on the fire. It now appears from the latest information out of the Central Oregon Command Center that they will let Sherman County Fire continue to have the incident. Resource mix on the fire is engines and water tenders. No word on number of personnel. Last report unless significant activity occurs.



NORTHERN CALIFORNIA -  


BULLY FIRE: The Bully Fire is burning southwest of Redding. The cause of the fire was a truck driven into tall dead grass. The grass hit the exhaust system of the truck and caused the fire. The individual responsible for that has been arrested and charged. A type 1 IMT from Cal Fire has command of the fire. 12,661 acres, 88 percent contained. Fire is burning grass and brush savannahs and timber. Minimal fire behavior again yesterday with occasional single tree torching. Fire fighters have enjoyed favorable conditions on this fire and are making excellent progress. Mop up is proceeding on all sections of the fire, and resources are being released. All critical initial response resources like air tankers and hot shot crews have been released. A civilian fatality was confirmed. This was a person who could not get out of the way fast enough. 20 structures, including at least 1 home have been lost to the fire so far. Many homes and structures remain at risk. Estimated containment date is the 23rd. Full resource mix of hand crews, engines, water tenders, bulldozers, and helicopters fighting the fire. Total personnel - 1528. 








The support I have received from all of you is tremendous. It really is. The traffic both here on the website, and on social media is exceeding my every expectation. You people are awesome.

I am asking just one thing of you. One. VISIT the sponsors of Rogueweather. This is VERY easy to do. EVERY ad here on Rogueweather.com links to a website or a facebook page. Just click on those banner ads. Each day I feature sponsors here on the home page and on facebook. When you see them, click on the link to visit them. That is all you have to do. Easy, quick, simple. No real effort required. But it means a LOT later when I ask for their continued support of Rogueweather. It really does. They can then see for themselves how much you believe in Rogueweather. Obviously buying your goods and services from these wonderful people is great. And when you do that....PLEASE let them know you have seen them on Rogueweather.

Mother's Day, Graduation, Father's Day, and other major events are coming up. Many wedding anniversaries happen in the summer. You will find GREAT gifts and ideas for all of these upcoming special events by looking through the business directory / partner's page at Rogueweather.com. All of these businesses are committed to supporting the local community. Here is the link to get you to the business directory / partner's page.......http://rogueweather.com/index.php/partner-directory



Rogueweather.com is on KMED am 1440 Monday and Friday at 7:10 am. I will be doing outdoor recreation reports giving you a quick look at what is going on in Southern Oregon. These are brought to you by Waterworld Boat and Power Sports. For the latest in news from Southern Oregon and the world......click on the banner below and you will get updated by KMED on all that is going on. 





For road conditions, check out the Bob Thomas Automotive Road Condition page. 


The Valley Immediate Care Ski report page will give you information and links to ski areas in Oregon and California. We also will give you information on Whistler Blackcomb up in British Columbia.


Our Home and Garden page will be full of information that you can use. Get tips and ideas for home improvement, landscaping, and gardening. 


Get GREAT off road power sports action on the Off Road Recreation page.


On the Waterworld Boat and Power Sports fishing page I give the latest information for fishing in Southern Oregon. I cover it all from the lakes, to the rivers, to the ocean.


The Camping page is a great resource. You will find information on where to camp, plus forecasts. Be sure to check it out.


The Golf page will give you information every golfer can use.


The Southern Oregon Fine Meats hunting page is full of information for hunters.


Archery hunters, check out our Archery page. You will find information including how to do its, and hunting videos, plus a photo gallery. I think you will like what you find there.


Love motocycles? Dirt, street, performance, customs......if it is a motorcycle we have information for you on the Motorcycling page. This is brought you by Hansens' Motocycles.



IN THE NEWS:

As you may know, there was a fire in the field that the airport owns off Corona Avenue in North Medford last Thursday evening. A combine was working harvesting barley when it suffered a mechanical malfunction and a fire resulted. Nearly three acres of barley, the combine, a fence at a home on Steelhead Run Drive, and kids plastic play toys were lost to the fire.

Here is the follow up on this:

The field is owned by the airport, but leased by a private party. The party who has leased the field is responsible for anything that happens there, especially anything happening as a result of agricultural activity which this most certainly was. The leasee pays the Airport for use of the land.

What is out there is barley. Barley is a highly valued grain crop. The Airport does not receive any of the revenue for the sale of the barley grown there. All revenue goes to the leasee.

They are going to get another combine out there and finish harvesting the barley. However, the harvest will only take place in the mornings. No more harvest in the afternoon and evening during the highest fire danger periods of the day. In the future, safety measures such as having a 50 foot set back zone near the homes, and fire breaks through the center of the field will be instituted. Being that this is in a city with homes at direct risk from fires in the field, those are prudent steps. The set back zones will not be cultivated and likely will be tilled dirt. I made the suggestion to Mr. Case that the leasee also have a water truck, or a pick up with a slip in fire pack to take care of fires if they do happen. He appreciated that suggestion and it will likely be a condition of lease moving forward.

As for the homeowners who did suffer losses from the fire in the form of a burned up fence, melted plastic kids toys and other losses, they will all be covered for the losses. Mr. Case told me that the County is working with the homeowners to get a full accounting of the total dollar loss and will be working with them to get full compensation, and in the case of the fence assisting in rebuilding it.

I know a lot of people were very angry about what happened based on the erroneous, (and still not corrected), information about this fire that other media outlets have given out. Only Rogueweather corrected the story so that the circumstances of what happened were correct. And, only Rogueweather has done any follow up on the story to let you know what is happening going forward.


FEATURED SPONSORS:


Perl Funeral Home and Siskiyou Memorial Park

2100 Siskiyou Blvd.

Medford, Oregon

97504

541 - 772 - 5488

http://www.perlfuneralhome.com/

The one thing none of us want to think about, is the one thing none of us can avoid: the end of life. All of us, one day, will face that. There are dozens of important decisions to be made: cremation or burial? What cemetery? What kind of casket or urn? What kind of memorial service? Where? Confronting these choices is difficult for a grieving family, but you can make things easier on your loved ones by pre-planning with Perl Funeral Home and Siskiyou Memorial Park. Perl and Siskiyou's caring staff can work with you to plan the details of your cremation or burial plan and help ensure your wishes are followed and your family is spared the challenge of making decisions in their grief. Additionally, by making your prearrangements, you will save your family hundreds, possibly thousands, of dollars in cremation or burial expenses.

I can personally attest to this. My grandmother passed away a few years ago, and while the family was wondering, "What next?" we received a call from Perl's staff. They let us know that Grandma had made all her arrangements with Perl and Siskiyou herself, down to the last detail. All we had to do was show up and remember her. Everything else had been handled by Grandma and the staff at Perl and Siskiyou. We did not have to make any decisions or pay any additional money. It was a wonderful, final gift Grandma left for us. 

You can do this too. Perl and Siskiyou offer the lowest prices for cremation and burial services, but the highest level of service and care. Compassionate care, gracious grounds, and respectful remembrance. You will have it all when you use Perl and Siskiyou for end of life needs. When you call, ask for Kristi or Jammie and they will help you give your family peace of mind.


Flowerland Nursery

6808 Table Rock Road

Central Point, Oregon

97502

541 - 826 - 3485

http://flowerlandnursery.net/

Flowerland Nursery is a local family operated business that has grown general nursery stock in the Rogue Valley for over 3 decades. They grow their own plants on site, cutting out the middle man, so Flowerland can pass savings on to their customers. At Flowerland it is about offering high quality products adapted to conditions here in the Rogue Valley. They have a wide variety of all types of vegetation. Everything from ground cover plants to trees for shade and decoration. They also feature fruit trees of all kinds. In addition, Flowerland has everything you need for your vegetable gardens. They have starter plants. Flowerland has colorful hanging floral baskets and can advise you on using baskets for growing vegetables, herbs, and strawberries too. You get a lot of great ideas, and tons of knowledge here. Flowerland is open every day. They are right on Table Rock Road near White City. Come out and see Glenn, Sharon, John, Julie and their resident meeter & greeter "Joey dog"


Laurel Hill Golf Course

9450 Old Stage Road

Gold Hill, Oregon

97525

541 - 855 - 7965

http://www.laurelhillgolf.com/

Laurel Hill is in Gold Hill and located right off of I - 5. This makes it easy to get to and a quick drive from Medford. The course is laid out on a former farm and it is easy to walk. It is heavily treed with Madronne and Oak trees lining every bit of the fairways and the greens. This makes well placed shots a must. Laurel Hill is a nine hole layout, with a driving range. It is a very laid back course and if you want to play in shorts and a tank top and not draw icy looks from your fellow golfers, this is your course. It is very kid friendly as well. They have a junior program that is wonderful to introduce kids to golf. This is also a course where your kids have their first chance of beating you!




ABOUT ROGUEWEATHER.COM

RogueWeather.com is based in Medford, Oregon. The founder, Greg Roberts is the forecaster. Greg has nearly 30 years of weather forecasting experience, specializing in severe weather events. Greg has received training from a variety of sources, including the University of Oklahoma. 

Greg volunteers as a Skywarn weather observer for the National Weather Service. This has lead to many hours out in the field storm chasing and getting up close with the storms he loves. 

Greg also served as a wildland and municipal fire fighter and EMT. While a fire fighter he earned many certifications including Engine Company Officer and Incident Commander for wildland fires. His weather knowledge was proven to be useful on major wildland fires in Southern Oregon and Northern California. Greg still consults with various fire departments and agencies and also for private wildland fire fighting companies.


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