FORECAST FOR 3/30/2015 - presented by Valley Immediate Care
Mostly sunny today with increasing clouds late. Expect windy conditions to develop in the mountains and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s for the valleys with 60s for the mountains and east of the Cascades. Overnight rain arrives with snow in the mountains. Snow levels lower to 5000 feet by Tuesday morning. Lows will be in the mid 40s for the valleys, with 20s to the mid 30s for the mountains and east of the Cascades.
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Everything is right on track in the data this morning. Today will be the warmest day for at least the next two weeks. Southerly flow ahead of the incoming cold front will warm things up nicely for the entire region today. That will make the abrupt temperature change tomorrow seem even more harsh. The cold front that will bring the very dramatic change to our weather and that will serve as the catalyst to bring about a pattern change is very visible in the satellite imagery this morning. It is working it's way towards us and should hit the coast around 10 to 11 pm tonight and continue to move eastward. Where highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s for Medford, tomorrow will struggle to hit 55. In just 24 hours we will go from being a good 15 degrees above average, to about 5 degrees or more below average.
The front will also be bringing in moisture with it. I am not expecting a lot of moisture to arrive. It will be far more of a nuisance level than anything substantial. Looking at the projections for the next week, the wettest spot in Southern Oregon shapes up to be the Coast Range east of Brookings and Gold Beach where an inch and half is expected to accumulate. That obviously means we will be seeing light amounts of rain. We will also be seeing light amounts of snow for the mountains. The cold air associated with this system and then the lingering pattern shift to a cold northwest to northerly flow over the area may be the biggest result of this whole event. Snow levels today are near 9000 - 10,000 feet over Southern Oregon. They will drop quickly tonight. By tomorrow morning look for them to be down to 5000 feet, and then down to 3000 feet by Wednesday morning. But here is the thing. I am not expecting major travel issues with this because there is not going to be a lot of snow coming. We look to see a trace to 3 inches as the main frontal boundary passes overnight and Tuesday morning. In the Cascades above 6000 feet there could be as much as 6 inches of snow. That would impact Crater Lake National Park, but not much else. With the sun angles now and the way the pavement has warmed, I think spots of ice will be the biggest impact for travel, and that will largely be a morning thing. That and overnights.
Once that precipitation field associated with the main frontal boundary goes through, we will see shower activity for Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will see a decrease in the activity level, but they could be heavier showers as the sun gets a good convective dynamic going. Thunderstorms are possible for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Likely more so on Wednesday. If storms pop, they could produce gusty winds and small hail. The convective atmosphere will also likely produce graupel / snow pellets falling to the valley floors at times. This is the product of cold air aloft in convective atmospheres and we will have the perfect set up for it on Tuesday afternoon and evening, and then all day on Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday will be much better days in terms of clouds and showers. A ridge will develop over us that will kick the action to the north of us. However, it is not going to change the prevailing air flow aloft so be expecting things to remain on the cool side. This is also when we might see frost develop in the mornings for the valleys west of the Cascades so gardeners and agricultural interests will need to be ready to protect vegetation. Looking ahead to next week, the ridge will get knocked out on Friday night paving the way for a renewal of precipitation chances over our region. Once again temps will drop down to the mid 50s and snow levels will lower to around 3000 feet by Saturday evening. But, once again I am not expecting that we will see much rain or snow out of this. Light amounts of both expected. Looking ahead to the first full week of April and the upcoming Pear Blossom Festival activities.......we look to remain cool and unsettled all the way through the week of the 6th through the 11th. The 11th is the Saturday of the Pear Blossom Festival featuring the parade in downtown Medford. As it looks right now, the parade may see the kind of weather we so often see for Pear Blossom. Cloudy, cool, and a chance for showers.
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RogueWeather.com is based in Medford, Oregon. The founder, Greg Roberts is the forecaster. Greg has nearly 30 years of weather forecasting experience, specializing in severe weather events. Greg has received training from a variety of sources, including the University of Oklahoma.
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Greg also served as a wildland and municipal fire fighter and EMT. While a fire fighter he earned many certifications including Engine Company Officer and Incident Commander for wildland fires. His weather knowledge was useful on wildland fires he worked in Oregon and Northern California. Greg still consults with various fire departments, and also for private wildland fire fighting companies on fire related matters.
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