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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 11/23/2022

 

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LONG RANGE WINTER FORECASTS DOWN BELOW. SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THEM.

 

 

8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK

This is going to take us out to the time period of the 30th of November to December 6th. Colder than averag and wetter than average. This is what Lan Nina looks like. And for the winter sports enthusiasts out there, this is exactly what you want to see. This is the kind of outlook we need to get Mt. Ashland and Mt. Shasta Ski Park open on time the second weekend of December. For travel....no good news here. This portends lots of impact on travel with snow and ice.

 

 

Screenshot 3446              Screenshot 365

 
 
 
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK
This is covers the time period of the 3rd to the 16th of December. What you see below is exactly what I expect to see with a La Nina going. And if this is correct, it is in this time frame were we could be seeing the next potential for valley floor snow hitting. If you have travel plans for anytime in this time period, what you see here portends a lot of difficult travel across the Northwest and down into northern California. But, if you are a winter sports enthusiast of any kind, this is the kind of outlook that dreams are made of! This is exactly what you want to see to get Mt. Ashland, and the Mt. Shasta Ski Park open on time. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Screenshot 639    Screenshot 640    
 
 
 
 
 
Here is your NOAA 30 day forecast for December. You can look at the information above and see that this forecast already looks to be in trouble. Once again we have two divisions of NOAA that appear to be out of touch with each other. I do believe what we see above looks far more likely than what we see here. 
 
 
Screenshot 554        August precip
                                    
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
WINTER 2022 - 2023 LONG RANGE FORECASTS
 
 
The time has come! Let's look at what the various long range forecasting services are saying we can expect for the winter of 22 - 23. Meteorological Winter begins on December 1st. Season, or Astronomical Winter begins on the 21st. This is typically the shortest day of the year in terms of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere. So. we will begin our look at the long range forecasts by starting with Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist Pete Parsons' three month prediction. Pete has a good track record. He only does three month at a time predictions. So, in this case he is not going to cover all of winter. He is going to be cutting off about three weeks early. But, here is what he is predicting for December through February. Look at the graphic. He tells you that he does not have a high degree in what he has forecast. The reason why? We are in just the third Triple Dip La Nina since 1950. I am very surprised he did not use those two previous years as his model to forecast what this winter could be like. But, he clearly identifies that he did not. And, this is why there is questions......even from Pete himself about this. Personally, if this does turn out to be the case, I am going to be shocked. Pete also released other more in depth information in his seasonal forecast. To see that, click on the image.   
 
 
 
Pete Winter 22 23 
 
 
  
 
 
 
The next one up is Accuweather. As you can see, in our part of the world, they are predicting an "average" winter for both temps and precipitation. You can see down in California they are thinking milder. To our north/northeast colder and snowier. 
 
 
 
 
Screenshot 219
 
 
 
 
 
 
Now, the Farmers Almanac fall forecast. They are also called the NEW Farmers Alamanac. It is not the same as the OLD Farmers. Old Farmers has decades of head start on New. I guess New thought they could do it better. As you can see, they have the entire Northwest in the cool temps, normal precipitation situation. They do agree with Accuweather about California and the rest of the Southwest. This would be a thing to really give confidence to that outcome in a normal winter. But, agfain, this is a Triple Dip La Nina. I think there is going to be a lot of uncertainty about this winter. That means we have a higher than normal likelihood of all these long range forecasts busting.
 
 
Screenshot 218
 
 
 
 
 
Here is what NOAA/ National Weather Service is forecasting. And, given what we have seen above, this is your big outlier. And, it is not normal when NOAA is going with a much cooler and wetter outlook than the other forecasting services you see above. But, they are here. At least where the Northwest and far northern California is concerned. But, they are in agreement with Accuweather and Farmer's about the rest of California. And, like I said above...in a normal winter this would be enough to have me convinced that this is going to be the situation for California and even the rest of the Southwest. But, we are going to see how right these three forecast sources are in this Triple Dip situation.
 
 
 
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p02.2c
 
 
 
 
And now, time for the Granddaddy of them all........Old Farmer's Almanac. This thing is very confusing to look at. Far more so than typical. I am not sure how you have mild and snowy....but they do. And out here in the western US there is a LOT of that! This is one of the few times that I have looked at an Old Farmer's forecast and wondered what they were thinking. But, here it is for what it is worth.
 
 
 
Screenshot 1361
 
 
 
 
 
WHAT DO I THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN? 
This is likely the most difficult winter to predict in advance since Rogueweather began in 2011. The Triple Dip La Nina is a major impactor of the situation. I do not think ANY of the long range sources above have really nailed the situation. The two previous Triple Dip La Nina winters were December 1975 to February of 1976 and December 2000 to February 2001. My recollection of the first one was a dry but cold winter. The second one was a really wet and cold one. Historically, La Ninas have been far more likely to be cold and wet for the Northwest and down into Northern California. I still think that is going to be the case. Especially since the first two years of this La Nina have been so dry. The basic laws of averages states that we would have to swing that pendulum swing back the other way. I do think that the Accuweather and NOAA forecasts come the closest to having that situation dialed in. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But, I will lean on history and the law of averages to work in my favor until they don't.  
 
 
 
 
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