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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 6/24/2022

 

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Rogue Ped. Thera

 

 

 

8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK

The date range here is July 2nd through the 8th. All the sudden that turn to summer is gone. Look at the temps. Even down into California. And. the precipitation side of things shows a slightly above avwerage chance for precipitation. I am not really a believer that this means rare to see organized rain coming for early July. I do think we are going to see an enhanced chance for showers for the coastal areas....and from Douglas County north. But, that is far more of a hit and miss thing. You can see that the above average chances for rain are to the north, northeast of us. And of course in thje Southwest, the Monsoon signature remains strong. 

 

 

Screenshot 3446                           Screenshot 365

 
 
 
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK
This is going to take us out to the time period of July 9th through the 22nd. What is important in this time frame is the Jackson County Fair. Most years the fair is characterized by very hot weather....and good potential for thunderstorms. And, since 2011, the fear of thick smoke is also a concern. Well, not this year. Average temps are expected. Not heat. And, we expect average chances for rainfall. July is the driest month of the year for this area. So, not likely to be much of a threat for rainfall. 
 
 
 Screenshot 324                       Screenshot 367
 
 
 
 
 
 
Here is your NOAA 30 forecast for July. NOAA is normally very big on saying things will be hotter than average and drier in any kind of longer drange outlook that they do. So much so I almost tend to think of them as a chronic outlier. So to see them going like this in July was a shocker. If NOAA is not forecasting scorching heat, (and they are not), then you KNOW that things are looking to be very much on the milder side.
 
 
 
July temp     July prcp 
 
 
                                     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUMMER 2022 LONG RANGE FORECASTS
 
 
Everyone is dreading the summer now because of the inevitable smoke situation. But, as you are going to see, there is some hope that we might avoid that this year. There are summer forecasts that suggest we will see moisture continue to arrive. That would be consistent with a summer that has a La Nina present. And this one is going to.
 
 
Accuweather has come out with a fire forecast for the first time. They point to the summer of 2011 as their closest in matching conditions year....or the analog year. I am not going to post their graphic supporting that because it would be wrong for our area. They show us potentially having much more activity than we did in 2011. I started Rogueweather in 2011. That was the quietest fire season we have had in every way since we began. There was NO smoke. And what fire activity we did see came very late in August and September. Lightning activity that year was also very minimal. We did not see significant fire starts from lightning until the last day of August and the first 3 days of September. And the only fire situation of real consequence that arose from it was the Red Cone Complex in Crater Lake National Park. And that complex had no worse than moderate fire behavior until the snow came in October totally putting it out. 
 
I am not going to show what NOAA expects for the summer. They say hot and dry. They say hot and dry every year for summer. They never change the seasonal. They will change the 30 day outlook as conditions dictate.
 
 
The first long range forecast I am going to put up is Pete Parsons. Pete is the Meteorologist for the Oregon Department of Forestry. As you can see, Pete is hedging his bets here. He is showing what he thinkis we will see for the next three months. But, as you will read, he is having a difficult time finding analog years, or historical alignment with the exact conditions we have right now. But, you can see, he is for sure showing temps at or slightly below normal. On that point hert has not wavered at all. But, ghe is showing Jackson and Josephine Counties, plus areas east of the Cascades as drier. That would align more with what Accuweather had predicted. But, again...he states that this could turn out to be a wet summer. By the way, to see the full presentation that Pete has put out, click on the image. It is a link that will get you there.
 
 
Pete May July 
 
 
 
 
 
Here is a long range forecast for the summer that shows more mositure coming. And more moisture is consistent to La Nina summers. Hot however is not. This is Old Farmers Almanac. Where it comes to long range forecasting, they have the greatest success rate of them all. Okay, they have been doing it since the early part of the 1800s so that helps. But, since I have been in weather, they have far more hits than misses. 
 
 
 
2022 Summer Weather Maps US
 
 
 
 
The next one up is Accuweather. And, as you can see, it will depend on which side of the Cascades you are on as to moisture. West of the Cascades from Douglas County to Canada, they forecast a summer that starts wet. East of the Cascades and in Northern California it looks like they go average for rain. So that means dry basically. Because this is the dry time of the year. But, what is missing for our area in general? What you see to the southeast. NOT having that "Hotter, Drier" over our area is a truly great thing! Take that every summer if we could get it. By the way, look at California. If that is true, far less likely to see the kind of fires down there we have seen the last two years for sure. 
 
 
Screenshot 219
 
 
 
 
Now, here comes the forecast most out of agreement with what you see above, and most in agreement with NOAA. This is the Farmers Almanac. Also called the NEW Farmers Alamanac. It is not the same as the OLD Farmers. Old Farmers has decades of head start on New. I guess New thought they could do it better. In the time I have been in weather, they have not been bad. But, they do not get it right nearly as often as Old does. To give proper credit....that big snow that hit Douglas and Lane Counties in February of 2019? New Farmers Almanac was the only long range source that even had that as possible. So, there is that. 
 
 
Screenshot 218
 
 
 
Based on all of the above outlooks for the summer, and then looking back at history..........I am going with what Pete has laid out for temps, and what Old Farmers Almanac has for rain to be far closer to correct. I just do not believe based on the historical data of summers with a La Nina present that NOAA and New Farmers Alamanac are going to be correct. Accuweather with a blend of the two extremes landing in the middle, may also have a chance to be right. But, the majority of what I see says we can expect moisture to keep coming through the summer. And, if this is truly a match to 2011, we could be looking at a very quiet fire season with little if any smoke impact. I am sure everybody will breathe a sigh of relief to that! 
 
 
 
 
 
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