LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER - 10/31/2019
Be sure to see the 3 month and winter forecasts down below
November is usually the month where the rainfall starts coming in earnest. Average highs for November in Medford are in the 50s. 50s and 60s are very typical for November at the beginning of the month. By the time you reach the end of the month, 40s for highs are not uncommon at all. Frosts will have certainly occurred over all but the coastal areas. Average rainfall for Medford in November is at 3 inches. The coastal areas will typically see 5 - 7 inches of rain in November. November is also when the snowpacks start building in the mountains. Typically November will bring 2 - 3 feet of snow in the mountains.
As for what we can expect through the middle of November;
Accuweather did finally get their forecast for the winter out. It is something of an outlier compared to the two above. In fact, it comes closer to resembling what NOAA has forecast. And again. NOAA is saying sdry and warm. Just as they have for the past 5 winters. Accuweather sees us being mild for the winter. Both in terms of temps and also precipitation. So when compared to the two sources above and what we see down below from the State of Oregon, that is not aligning at all. Based on what we have already seen so far it really does not align. But, that is what long range forecasting is about. It is really an estimate of what you think is going to happen. Based on the other sources we have here, it seems like Accuweather's take on temps could be closer to right. But, predicting a mild winter for precipitation is looking to be a stretch. But, we shall see what comes to pass.
The state of Oregon also does offer long range prediction. And typically speaking, they do a good job of being accurate on at least one phase. There are two phases by the way. Precipitation, and Temperature. The State of Oregon does not release more than a 3 month outlook. So here is what they have for October through December. In this case, basically fall. On the left hand side is temperature. They believe that we will be about 3 to 5 degrees above average for temps for October through December. The right hand side is precipitation. They expect most of the state to be right about normal to slightly above except for that green swath. That swath runs from Southwestern Deschutes County down into Klamath County, and Western Lake County. They predict 115 percent of normal precipitation in that green swath.
I do think the the last part of what they put up is very noteworthy. That lines up with Old Farmers projections as well.