LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER - 10/1/2018
October is the first full month of fall. Typically October will have highs in the 60s and 70s with 80s and even 90s still possible at the beginning of the month which becomes mostly 50s and 60s with some 70s for highs on the warmest days by the end of the month. Overnight lows can be quite chilly. Most locations in the region will have their first frosts before the end of the month. October on average is typically going to give us a little over an inch of rain in Medford. October will generate about 2 - 3 inches of rain along the Coast in a normal year. Snow levels in the mountains usually are on the high side, but accumulating snows to as low as 2500 feet have happened.
As we look at the data through the middle of the month, we are looking to see a continuation of our cool temps continuing. In fact, it looks like we could see highs well below normal. That would give us a lot of 60s west of the Cascades and 50s east of the Cascades if the current trends hold up. This would be likely to be in the 10 degrees below average range. That is something we have been seeing pretty consistently since the end of August. The exception being that hot spell we had last week. There is NOTHING like that being seen at all. Those with outdoor plans, especially those hunting need to be prepared for the chilly conditions. Especially the chilly conditions at night. I would say that 40s for highs and lows down in the 20s for the mountains are very much to be expected.
Precipitation is going to be a big question mark. The truly long range data from the NOAA Climatology Center has Ocotober being warm and dry for us. BUT! The closer look is showing us being cool and potentially wet. Possibly very wet through the middle of the month. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the situation. However, we are starting to see the first signs of the pattern shifting to where we could see wetter, and colder systems arriving from the Gilf of Alaska. If that does happen, we might see a very good shot of rain and even high elevation snow come in. But, this is far from certain right now. But, we have seen some major changes from what the Climatology Centers had called for in the last three months already. So......cross the fingers that they are not going to be right again this time. Getting off to a really good start for rain and snow for the new Water Year would be just what we need to see happen in more ways than one.