LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF JULY - 7/5/2019
July is when we usually see summer come on with full force. There will be days and days of uninterrupted sunshine even in years with normal rainfall. Temps will begin to soar and hitting 100 is common. The average high in Medford for the month is just under 90 at 89. 70 would be a very cool day, and as for heat........well the all time highest temperature ever in Medford happened on July 20th, 1946 when it hit 116 at the Oregon State University Agriculture Extension Office in South Medford. The high at the Medford National Weather Service Office was 115. Rainfall in July even in a normal year in Medford is just 0.31 of an inch. Most of that, if not all of that, is usually the result of thunderstorm activity. Many years, even in wet ones, July can be bone dry. June was almost bone dry this year in Medford. just 0,01 of an inch of rainfall.
Looking at what we can expect through month's end......the going expectation is for normal to slightly above normal temps. So expect to see a lot of 80s and 90s west of the Cascades, and 80s for the most part east of the Cascades in the valleys and basins. The mountains will be seeing 60s and 70s in the upper elevations. The coastal areas will be right around average for this time of the year meaning 60s. Rainfall is expected to be below average. That would certainly follow what we saw in June. Now, that said, like we saw in June, the best chance for rain in July would likely come from thunderstorms. So far this has produced very hit and miss rain over our area. Where storms have hit, rainfall numbers have been very high. Some RAWS stations have reported big rainfall totals when storms hit. One RAWs site in the Umpqua Divide north of Prospect reported almost an inch of rain in 40 minutes from a storm...and then had a 72 hour total of nearly 4 inches. So just illustrates what can happen when wet thunderstorms make direct hits. And, the way things look right now, it does look as though dry lightning is not going to be much of a real threat in July. At least not to this point. For that we are very grateful. We will not have a repeat of last July 15th. At least from every bit of data we have now. .