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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 12/4/2021

 

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8 to 14 day outlooks;

 

Screenshot 927

 

The time period covered here is December 12th through the 18th. The trends that developed in days 6 through 10 are continuing here. We are fully immersed in a pattern that sees us wirth cooler than average temps, and above average chances for rain and snow. What we see above is also showing that we could be seeing snow down on the valley floors. And, if you have travel plans in this time period, be expecting impacts from snow and ice. If you have not seen the 6 to 10 day outlook yet, click here to get that information

 

 

Here are the 3 to 4 week outlooks for temps and precipitation provided by NOAA;

 

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This time period takes us from the 18th of December to New Years Eve. We are seeing exactly what the data was saying we would see for late December as far back as the end of October. There has been no change in what we expect to see. Confidence is high on this. So, you can see that colder than average temps with above average chances for precipitation will continue to closae out 2021. You know what else this means? The chances for a White Christmas in the valleys west of the Cascades get a real boost. We are getting exactly what we need to see to create the possibility for the valleys. This looks real good. Do your cnow dances and keep singing "White Christmas".  

 

 
HERE ARE THE OUTLOOKS FOR THE WINTER FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
 
 
 
First up........Accuweather 
 
Screenshot 930
 
 
Accuweather has been on a roll. They have been far more consistent than most long range sources. Let's see if they keep their streak going.
 
 
 
 
Now let's take a look at what Farmers Alamanac is saying. This is the "new" Farmers. Not "Old". Theirs is coming up. 
 
 
2022 US Farmers Almanac Winter Outlook 2048x1366
 
 
 
 
 
Next up.....the NOAA predictions. And for NOAA, these are something of a shocker. They are not normally known to be predicting cooler and wetter conditions. Kind of runs against the narrative. But, as you see below, this is exactly what they have done. But, they kind of had to do this. They were the first to announce that La Nina was expected again this winter. Their predictions lock right in on that. 
 
Screenshot 2999
 
 
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Next up.......the Old Farmers Almanac. This is your true outlier. It is the one running the most out of phase. Notice what it shows for areas west of the Cascades. Mild and dry. East of the Cascades cold and dry. It is that dry part that is totally the opposite of what the other sources are showing. 
 
 
weather reveal final day 
 
 
 
 
Next up is the three month outlook from Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist Pete Parsons. Pete is the one most bullish on the precipitation he expects us to see. And, he is going to show the years he is looking at that most reflected what is expected to happen. He looks at the results of conditions like we see now, and then forecasts from that. The past can and deos repeat itself. I am sure hoping that is right in this case!
 
Petes Fall
 
 
 
So there you have it. The outlook for the coming winter from various long range sources. I am going to most align with Accuweather and Pete Parsons in what I am personally expecting.
 
 
 
The Long Range Forecast information is presented by Rogue Pediatric Therapies. They specialize in Pediatric speech therapy, Occupational therapy, and feeding therapy, Articulation, Stuttering, Language, Grammar, Social Skills, and Autism. If you have a child in your life that needs assistance in any of these areas, these are the certified, trained professionals to contact. Click on their banner above to learn more about them.
 
 
 
 
 

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