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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 10/12/2026
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6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK
This covers the time period of the 18th to the 22nd. Below average temps and a real chance to see rain. This could also mean some snow in the highest elevations.
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
This covers the time period of the 20th to the 26th. Temps are still below average. But, we swing to average chances to see precipitation in most areas. Lake and Modoc Counti3es will still have above average chances to see precipitation. In the highest elevations of the Warners...that could be snow.
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK
This covers the time period of the 24th of October to the 6th of November. Temps are still expected to be above average. But, in Oregon and Washington, looks like average chances of precipitation. California, and the Desert Southwest shifts to an above average chance of precipitation. That is a classic El Nino signal.
OCTOBER MONTHLY FORECAST
October's outlooks match exactly what we see above. Above to well above average temps....and dry conditions.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS
First up is the 90 day forecast from Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist Pete Parsons. Pete is a very good longer range forecaster. He is basing his forecasts on what has happened with years where we had similar climatic conditions. He has found that 1972, 1982, and 2023 had conditions much like we see now. Many times the solution to forecasting the future is to look at the past and similar conditions. Pete does this. Pete has a lot of information in his three month outlook. Click on the second image below to read Pete's report. As you are going to see, Pete and NOAA Climatology are not on the same page at all. One of them is going to be proven right.
Here is what NOAA is forecasting for October through December. They are going alot warmer.....but, they are pretty much in line with Pete about precipitation.
NOAA Climatology also has this as the drought expectation. No relief in sight.
